Excerpt from:  Virginia Real Estate News
.
June 13, 2007

Buy a D.C./Northern Virginia Home from a Motivated Seller

Sellers are motivated as homes spend long time on the market

Motivated sellers are everywhere these days in Northern Virginia and D.C.  Numerous MLS remarks on properties have comments such as "motivated seller -- submit all offers!" and "motivated seller -- plasma t.v. screen conveys."  This is a stark contrast from the comments seen over the last few years when a property went on the market on a Thursday with the remarks "contracts due by Tuesday."

The reason for this change is apparent when we look at the following charts of average days on the market in the various jurisdictions.  No matter the location in Northern Virginia or D.C., all these charts point to one thing -- the number of days a home is on the market before ratifying a contract has strikingly increased in 2006 and 2007 from those same numbers in 2002-2005.

From the Washington D.C. chart, we can see that the number of days on market (DOM) is down to an average of just over 60 days in May 2007 which is a large decrease from the high reached in March 2007 and at its lowest point since September 2006.  This points to an balancing of the market for homes in D.C.

The chart for Northern Virginia portrays a similar picture of the housing market, though the average days on market is slightly higher than across the Potomac River.  At the height of the frenzied seller's market, Northern Virginia homes were selling in less than 2 weeks in June of 2004!  In May 2007, homes were on then market for slightly over 70 days, but this is way down from almost 110 days on the market in February 2007.  It's trending lower and balancing out, but still nowhere near pre-2006 levels.  Over 2 months of keeping the house in order and ready for showings by real estate agents and anxiously waiting for a sale or needing to sell for a corporate relocation or deployment is certainly enough to make many Northern Virginia home sellers very motivated!

The chart for Prince William County, Virginia paints a picture of a very difficult market for sellers.  The number of days on market in Prince William County has not fluctuated much this year and is still hovering around 120 days.  With homes spending close to 4 months on the market, we're starting to see more foreclosures and I've noticed many more bank-owned properties listed on the MLS in Prince William than in Alexandria, Arlington, or Fairfax Counties.  This may be tough to swallow for many Prince William County homeowners and potential sellers, especially when that market was performing on par with the rest of Northern Virginia from 2002-2005 (look at DOM from March 2004-December 2004!)

Finally, here's a closer picture of Alexandria City.  From this chart, we see that the market in Alexandria City is rapidly recovering with May 2007 numbers just about par with May 2006 at right around 60 days on the market.  It has quickly tended down since February 2007.  Alexandria was one of the hottest markets around during the seller's market with homes consistently selling in 3 weeks or less from 2002-2005.

Conclusion:  Days on Market has increased throughout the entire Metropolitan D.C. region starting around August 2005.  This has drastically increased the inventory of homes available, creating increased competition and more desparate sellers.  Days on Market has started to trend down in D.C. and close-in Northern Virginia, starting to create a more balanced market.  However further out suburbs such as Prince William County and Loudoun County are still experiencing long marketing periods for homes, increased foreclosure rates, and very desperate sellers.

by Brian Block
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