Brief Real Estate Update -- Live from New York City

This week I've been at the Inman Real Estate Connect conference in New York City learning and meeting with real estate experts, economists, and Realtors throughout the country.  If you've been following the real estate market, you know that there are increasing foreclosures and tighter lending standards from lenders.  The outlook for 2008 is not great.  Professor Nouriel Roubini who spoke at the conference predicts that the country is heading for a major recession provoked by the current credit crunch.  Not everyone as is pessimistic as Roubini, but all signs point to the reality that things may get worse before they get better.

You must remember that real estate is intensely local.  The Washington D.C. market is different from the Manhattan market, which is different from the Chicago market, and very different from the market in Detroit or Denver.  Even within the D.C metropolitan area, prices, sales, foreclosures, pricing trends vary widely by jurisdiction.  Foreclosures are very prevalent in Prince William County, but almost non-existent in Arlington.  Pay close attention to the specific market.  Real estate trends for 2008 are hyper-local.  There is no such thing as a national real estate market -- so avoid falling into the trap of paying to much heed to national housing reports.

A few headlines today: 

• The Federal Reserve Board is considering a very aggressive rate cut to head off recession
• Countrywide Bank in big trouble -- strong chance that Bank of America will buy Countrywide (nation's biggest mortgage lender)
• Merrill Lynch likely announcing write-off of $15 Billion in bad mortgage debt -- about $3 Billion more than originally expected.